U.S. Presidential Elections: Conference by Raymond Chrétien a huge success June 2, 2008 Canada’s former ambassador to the United States, Mr. Raymond Chrétien, was invited to speak at the Fondation du Barreau du Québec’s annual benefit. Mr. Chrétien, who is now a partner at Fasken Martineau, was asked to analyze and comment on the repercussions that the outcome of the U.S. presidential elections will likely have on Canada. At the conference, Raymond Chrétien addressed such issues as NAFTA, the impact on trade in light of increasing security at the Canada-U.S. borders, the candidacies of Senators Barack Obama and John McCain, rebuilding the United States’ reputation abroad, and the growing tensions in the Middle East. “Neither Obama nor Clinton really intend to renegotiate NAFTA. Canada is America’s largest energy supplier, and it is unlikely that Americans will want to review their oil, natural gas, electricity and uranium agreements. It must be understood that the democratic electoral base is made up largely of unions, and that the language of election campaigns is basically protectionist,” explained Raymond Chrétien throughout the evening. On the growing number of border security measures implemented since September 11, Mr. Chrétien believes that, “the new administration will have to strike a balance between security and commerce. Canada’s economy will depend on this, since 45% of its GDP is linked to foreign trade.” Mr. Chrétien’s view of John McCain’s candidacy is somewhat different, and his analysis reflects the Canadian reality. “He is the only candidate not to have questioned NAFTA. He knows Canada’s role on the international scene, and he understands its mission in Afghanistan. He would be an easy and agreeable ally for Ottawa to deal with. But his main handicap remains his age and health,” he added. That Raymond Chrétien does not believe that an Obama victory will necessarily bring about fundamental change in the White House came as a surprise to some. “Naturally, in the first days of his presidency, he will want to send symbolic messages to the rest of the planet. He may decide, for example, to close down Guantanamo. However, he will remain saddled with the same virtually irresolvable problems that plagued his predecessor …and we mustn’t be too disappointed! Take Iraq, for example. If he were to decide to withdraw the American troops, the resulting chaos, at least in the first few months, will be blamed on him. And should he decide to stay in Iraq, he will be accused of reneging on his promise,” he explained. Furthermore, it seems increasingly likely that the American election will take place against a protectionist backdrop in light of the economic recession now taking hold in the United States. “America’s protectionist instincts will be all the more pronounced, especially if the president turns out to be a democrat. Canada will have to think hard and play its cards right. Trust me, Canada is not a daily concern for the U.S. president,” he pointed out. Finally, the future American president will be faced with immense challenges. “I do not think that George W. Bush will succeed in bringing Israel and Palestine any closer before the end of his mandate. This will be a considerable challenge for his successor, as will be rehabilitating America’s reputation across the globe.” After more than seven years in office in Washington, Mr. Chrétien has direct knowledge of U.S. politics and its underpinnings. In addition, his close ties with two of the three candidateswas bound to enthral the audience of some 250 individuals. “Mission accomplished,” exclaimed Mtre Claire Morency, director general of the Fondation du Barreau du Québec. The evening’s profits will support legal research projects and benefit Québec’s legal community and the general public.

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